World Ag Tour

The Corn Belt faces a contrasting challenge: excessive rainfall. After a spring of favorable planting conditions in the western Midwest, heavy rains have swept through the southern and eastern regions, as reported by Farm Futures. From late May into early June 2025, a band stretching from central Oklahoma through eastern Kansas, Missouri, and western Illinois has seen 1.5 to over 3 inches of rain, per NOAA’s 72-hour precipitation maps. This has shifted concerns from drought to flooding.

While recent rains have improved soil moisture across much of the Midwest, benefiting early-planted corn and soybeans, the southern areas remain soggy. USDA’s Crop Progress report from late May 2025 showed 87% of U.S. corn planted, above the five-year average of 85%, with 68% rated good to excellent—below expectations of 73%. Soybean planting, though not detailed in recent updates, faces similar risks of delay in waterlogged fields. Flooding has also disrupted infrastructure, with BNSF and Union Pacific rerouting rail lines in Iowa due to bridge collapses and washed-out roads, complicating grain transport. If rains persist, yield losses from waterlogged roots or pod shattering in soybeans could squeeze supplies, potentially lifting prices.

Wildfires in Western Canada

Western Canada, a vital region for wheat, canola, and other crops, is under threat from wildfires in 2025. The Canadian Prairies, already dry from earlier in the season, face heightened fire risk, with USDA and DTN noting an above-average number of blazes. Wildfires not only destroy crops directly but also degrade air quality and disrupt planting and harvest schedules. The National Agroclimate Risk Report from Canada, dated May 16, 2025, highlights low soil moisture in the northwest, Peace Region, and west-central areas, with only 57% of fall-seeded crops rated good to excellent—aligned with the five-year average but vulnerable to further stress.

A poor spring wheat or canola harvest could tighten global oilseed and grain markets, especially as demand for canola oil remains strong. If dryness and fires persist, yield potential could drop, echoing the 2023 season when drought and heat cut forage yields to 25-50% of normal in parts of British Columbia.

U.S. Corn and Soybean Planting Conditions

In the U.S., corn and soybean planting for 2025 is off to a promising start, though weather introduces uncertainty. The USDA’s May 2025 outlook, projected corn acres at 95.3 million, up 4.7 million from 2024, with a record yield of 181 bushels per acre based on normal weather assumptions. Production is forecast at 15.820 billion bushels, a 6% increase. 

Soybean acres, however, are expected to dip, reflecting lower prices and competition from South America, where Brazil’s 2025 crop is projected at 1.8 billion bushels more than the U.S.. American soybean acres projected for 2025 are at 83.5 million, compared to 87.1 last year. Production is down to 4.340 billion bushels, from 4.366 last year. 

Droughts in China’s Wheat Belt

China, the world’s largest wheat producer, is grappling with significant drought conditions in its key agricultural regions, particularly the central and northern wheat belt. As of early June 2025, drier-than-normal conditions are stressing wheat and canola crops during their reproductive and grain-filling stages, critical periods for yield development. The lack of precipitation through late May and into early June, as noted by DTN, has depleted soil moisture, threatening harvest outcomes. 

China’s meteorological center has forecasted some relief, with higher precipitation expected from July to September in the north, northeast, and western provinces. This could bolster late-season crop growth, particularly for corn and soybeans, but the outlook for wheat remains precarious. Intense rainfall, while beneficial, raises concerns about rapid shifts from drought to flooding, potentially damaging crops further and increasing risks of pests and diseases due to higher humidity. The decline in China’s wheat imports over the past year, as it leans on domestic stocks, adds complexity. A reduced harvest could tighten global wheat supplies, pushing prices higher, especially given recent jumps to 10-month highs in May 2024 due to weather-related yield cuts elsewhere.

Broader Implications and Outlook

The 2025 weather and crop outlook is a mixed bag. Drought in China threatens wheat, excessive rain in the U.S. Midwest challenges corn and soybeans, and wildfires in Western Canada imperil grains and oilseeds. Bloomberg’s Agriculture Outlook Webinar in April 2025 emphasized these dynamics, noting tariffs and weather as key variables. Globally, wheat prices may climb if supplies tighten, while corn and soybean markets hinge on U.S. yields and South American output. 

How do you honor a farming legacy while embracing the future? In this episode of The Land Ledger, fifth-generation farmer Quentin 'Q' Connealy shares how he's blending tradition with innovation. From wrapping combines in American flag decals to implementing cover crops after a historic flood, Q illustrates how thoughtful innovation can strengthen both farm resilience and family life.

Listen in as he shares how early exposure to tools like autonomous pivots, drones, moisture probes, and the John Deere Operations Center helped him become an early adopter of AgTech. Q also opens up about the real-world challenges of balancing data-driven decision-making with raising kids, maintaining community ties, and leading as a next-generation farmer. You’ll learn about the importance of data transparency, how strong local relationships remain the backbone of rural success, and more.