By the Numbers:
USDA Report Rundown: What’s Planting in 2025?
The USDA’s Prospective Plantings report is out, and it’s the first big clue about this year’s crop lineup across the U.S. Here’s the scoop, based on the latest figures:
Corn: Farmers are planning 95.3 million acres, up about 4% from last year’s 91.5 million. Higher corn prices and decent soil moisture might be driving this—trade estimates were around 94.3 million, so it’s a bit of a bullish surprise.
Soybeans: Set for 83.5 million acres, down roughly 3% from 2024’s 86.5 million. Analysts expected closer to 84 million, suggesting a shift toward corn in some regions.
Wheat: Pegged at 45.4 million acres total, a 4% drop from last year’s 47.5 million. That breaks down to 33.3 million winter wheat (down 7%), 10.0 million spring wheat (down 6%), and 2.0 million durum (flat). Estimates were higher at 46.6 million, making this a tighter outlook.
Cotton: Up to 9.9 million acres, a slight dip from trade guesses of 10 million but still above last year’s 9.6 million, thanks to steady demand.
The Grain Stocks report pegs supplies as of March 1, 2025, at:
Corn: 8.15 billion bushels, right on trade expectations. Exports have been strong, but ethanol use is steady, keeping stocks in check.
Soybeans: 1.91 billion bushels, above the expected 1.85 billion—exports might be lagging a bit.
Wheat: 1.24 billion bushels, higher than the 1.20 billion analysts predicted, hinting at softer demand early this year.
For Midwest farmers, this data suggests opportunity and caution. Corn’s dominance—boosted by a projected 181 bushels-per-acre yield—could tighten supplies and lift prices by fall, especially if Midwest planting stays on track with normal weather. Soybean surpluses may depress prices, pressuring margins in Illinois and Missouri, while wheat’s reduced acres could spark a rally if global demand rebounds. Farmers should monitor Midwest weather and export trends closely—corn looks promising, but diversification might hedge risks in this volatile market.
While talking to a few seed companies in the last week, they have confirmed some of the rumors of some farmers switching their production acres to corn-on-corn, to alleviate the depressed revenue that the bean market is showing right now.
The Land Ledger Podcast
What does it take to transform farmland ownership for the future? In this episode of The Land Ledger, guest host Justin McMenamy sits down with Brian Kearney and Marc Hartness, co-founders of Farmland Stock Exchange, to explore the evolving landscape of farmland investing. From navigating emotional bonds with land to grappling with the debate between conventional and organic farming, Brian and Marc share how they’re tackling these challenges, offering an innovative approach to farmland ownership that balances financial returns with sustainable practices.
Listen in as Brian and Marc reflect on the highs and lows of launching a startup in an industry steeped in tradition. They share candid stories about their journey—from gaining the trust of farmers to dispelling investor skepticism—and highlight the impact their company is already making. With farmland ownership poised to shift dramatically over the next decade, they discuss their vision for the future: empowering farmers to secure the land they work and ensuring it doesn’t fall into the hands of the highest bidder.
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