Green or Red Farming is Hard

Farmers are the epitome of market takers. Each year farmers buy their seed, chemical and fertilizer at retail prices. They pray for good weather, no pests, and do their best to manage diseases that pop up in their fields along the way. Then they will sell their crop to and end user at wholesale prices and hope they raised enough bushels to make a profit. In 2024 and upcoming in 2025, many season vets in the farming industry will lose money even while giving it their all. For this reason, there are very few people who decide to become first generation farmers, without having a land base or any equipment to their name. 

So if someone decided they wanted to start farming how could they match up to multi-generational farmers. To preface, I have so much respect for first gen farmers, and am not discouraging anyone from wanting to start an operation of their own, just highlighting the difficulties. 

Take David Cogen for example, a New York based tech entrepreneur who reached out to John Deere wanting to farm. Deere decided it would be a fun experiment, documenting the whole journey to a youtube audience, and showing how an everyday New Yorker compares to industry farmers. He was equipped with all the latest and greatest technology, including autonomous tractors, see and spray technology, and machine sync during harvest. 

While still living in New York Cogen flew out multiple times in the spring and the fall to begin planting his crop, spraying, managing weeds, and eventually harvesting his crop. Having a late start to planting by almost a month, he turned in a corn yield of 209 bushels at the end of it all with a revenue of $16,478 or $824 per acre. The catch? His expenses were $16,456 or $822.8 per acre. Meaning he turned a profit of $1.20 per acre, a measly $24. 

When asked what he took away from the experience, David acknowledged that farming is way more difficult than people think. While he won’t be seen in the fields anytime soon, he loved the rural lifestyle that went along with it. 

While almost everyone will agree that farming is hard, many farmers think that their equipment gives them a competitive advantage. Case folks will say they get higher yields than their John Deere counterparts, and Deere enthusiasts will beg to differ. But what is the real backstory of the “Tractor Wars”

This weeks episode of the Land Ledger podcast episode features Neil Dahlstrom, historian and author of Tractor Wars, explores the rise of steam-powered tractors in the late 19th and early 20th centuries, drawing parallels to today’s tech booms in agriculture and beyond. Dahlstrom, leverages his extensive archival research and current role at John Deere, highlights how the evolution of farm technology—driven by steam engines, gasoline-powered tractors, and later innovations like the bull tractor—offers lessons for understanding modern technological disruptions, particularly in autonomy and precision agriculture. 

By examining the competitive landscape shaped by companies like John Deere, International Harvester, and Ford, the discussion reveals recurring patterns of innovation, market competition, and societal adaptation that resonate with today’s tech-driven transformations.

In the late 1800s, steam-powered tractors emerged as a game-changer for large-scale farming, particularly in the Midwest’s expansive prairies. These machines, capable of powering threshing and plowing, addressed the labor-intensive nature of agriculture, where horses and manual labor were the norm. However, steam tractors were expensive, cumbersome, and required long warmup times, limiting their use to wealthy farmers or large operations. By the 1870s, the advent of gasoline and kerosene engines, coupled with expiring patents by 1889, sparked a wave of experimentation. This led to a tractor boom in the early 1900s, with over 100 companies entering the market by 1910. 

Innovations like the bull tractor—a smaller, more affordable gasoline-powered machine—unlocked farming for smaller operations, much like how modern tech democratizes access to tools like AI or precision agriculture.

A key lesson is the boom-and-bust cycle of innovation. The early tractor market saw intense competition, with companies like International Harvester and Ford challenging John Deere’s dominance. By 1920, over 170 tractor models existed, but market consolidation followed as impractical designs failed and giants absorbed smaller players. This mirrors modern tech bubbles, where hype around AI or blockchain fuels rapid investment, followed by shakeouts as only viable solutions survive. For instance, today’s Ag tech startups face similar pressures to deliver scalable, cost-effective tools amidst venture capital frenzy.

Another lesson is the role of infrastructure and adoption barriers. Steam tractors required significant investment and skilled operators, much like early computers demanded specialized knowledge. The bull tractor’s simplicity lowered these barriers, akin to how user-friendly interfaces drive smartphone or software adoption today. However, as posts on X highlight, farmers remain skeptical of overreliance on tech, citing challenges like equipment repairs or unpredictable variables (e.g., weather). This echoes early 20th-century farmers’ hesitancy to abandon horses for tractors due to cost and reliability concerns.

Finally, the tractor wars underscore the societal impact of tech transitions. The shift to mechanized farming displaced workers and reshaped rural economies, much like automation and AI raise concerns about job losses today. Yet, these transitions also create opportunities, as seen in John Deere’s efforts to attract tech-savvy younger farmers. By learning from history’s cycles of innovation, competition, and adaptation, we can better navigate today’s tech booms, balancing optimism with pragmatism to ensure sustainable progress in agriculture and beyond.